Season calendar
The window is narrower than the season.
South Africa can ship citrus for most of the year. India only wants it for part of that — and getting the two to line up is the whole business.
South African export windows
By category, against the Indian window
The gold outline marks roughly July to October: after the Egyptian and Chinese supply into India winds down, and before or across the Indian domestic Nagpur and Kinnow harvest. Every category can technically ship into that window. Only some of them arrive in condition and at a price that works.
The competing calendar
Who else is on the Indian market, and when
January to April — Egypt
Egyptian oranges dominate the first half of the year, though volumes have fluctuated on longer transit times and quality concerns. Egypt lands cheaper than South Africa and has the discipline to hold its window.
Through mid-year — China
Chinese Wogan mandarins hold a steady presence into the middle of the year before winding down.
Late June onward — South Africa
South African citrus replaces both as they finish. This is the window, and it is the only one.
Overlapping — Indian domestic
The Nagpur and Kinnow harvests are the risk. Arriving into them, rather than ahead of them, is what turned 2025 into a loss for exporters who were two months late.
Monsoon
Peak arrival coincides with the monsoon in parts of India, which suppresses consumption and disrupts inland distribution. It is a known risk on this corridor and belongs in the plan rather than in the post-mortem.
Sources
- USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, Citrus Annual: South Africa
- FreshPlaza — South Africa’s just-wrapped season in India offers lessons for citrus exporters
- FreshPlaza — South African citrus steps in as Egypt and China wind down in India
Industry figures are the most recent published at the time of writing and are indicative, not a warranty.